Posted by Lineups
Riding high off the back of four straight wins, Arsenal welcomed Leicester City to the Emirates in search of their first five game winning streak since the Arsene Wenger era.
The Foxes blew the doors of Arsenal 3-1 back in November and, in retrospect, probably put the final nail in Unai Emery’s coffin. Their start to 2019-20 was good enough to put them second place in the table on January 1, and they were five points clear of Chelsea in fourth when the Premier League shut down in March.
But since play resumed they’ve been trending in the wrong direction. Their win over Crystal Palace on Saturday was their first in five attempts.
Arsenal on the other hand, have begun enjoying their football under Arteta. The uptick in form has coincided with a move to a 3-4-3 formation, which has solidified their fragile backline, while freeing the front three to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.
Enough had changed for both teams that the Gunners actually entered the game as favorites to win.
Tactical Analysis
Both teams started with a back three: Arsenal in a 3-4-3 and the Foxes in a 3-4-1-2. Like the Gunners, Leicester switched to the formation relatively recently because of injuries to James Maddison and Ben Chilwell. On Tuesday, Kelechi Iheanacho was the only left-footed player in their starting lineup.
The formation choices left Arsenal 2v3 in midfield, but 3v3 against the Leicester City backline. That is, if they could get the ball up there quickly enough.
Vertical Passing
To take advantage of their advanced numbers, Arsenal would have to pass the ball vertically rather than horizontally. And in the first half, they did so with aplomb. Sead Kolasinac and Shkodran Mustafi, rather than Dani Ceballos and Granit Xhaka, were often tasked with making those entry passes in to the front line, and did so pretty effectively.
Here’s an example from the 26th minute:
Lacazette checks back to receive the ball from Kolasinac, then turns and plays Aubameyang down the channel. All told, Arsenal only need three passes to get the ball from inside their own box to inside the Leicester one. The quick passing means Leicester’s midfield can’t catch up.
Here’s another example, six minutes later:
This time, Luiz himself plays the vertical pass, allowing the Gunners to work the ball into the Leicester box with just two passes. They’re able to do so because of the movement of Lacazette, who draws the central CB (Jonny Evans) out of position for Aubameyang to run behind.
That didn’t mean Arsenal’s midfield was nonexistent. Dani Ceballos was most observers’ pick for Man of the Match, and for good reason.
It was him, whenever it wasn’t the backline, spraying passes to spring the front three on the counter. After showing why Real Madrid were asking €50 million for him back in August against Burnley, Ceballos fell so far down the pecking order he reportedly wanted to leave the Emirates in January.
With more performances like this one, it’s possible he won’t be leaving for years.
In two weeks, Ceballos has gone from likely leaving to hoping to stay. If Arsenal can get him for less than €40 million, I think it’s a no brainer.
Defensive Organization
Defensively, Arsenal were able to play two in midfield because it wasn’t actually two in midfield. Instead they:
- Dropped the deep-lying CM (most often Dani Ceballos) onto the Leicester CAM (Ayoze Perez).
- Pushed the higher CM (most often Granit Xhaka) onto the playside CM.
- Dropped the backside winger (Aubameyang or Saka) onto the spare CM
Here’s what it looked like:
Ceballos stays tight to Perez, Xhaka steps out onto Ndidi, and Aubameyang tracks infield to discourage the ball into Tielemans.
Leicester Adjust in the Second Half
Like any quality manager, Rodgers made changes tactically in the second half.
First, they dropped Jamie Vardy into midfield to take away Ceballos as a passing option. This meant other, less technical players were more responsible for advancing the ball. After doing well enough in the first half, they struggled in the second:
By dropping Vardy onto Ceballos (and later altering their formation to a 3-4-3), Leicester freed up their midfield to front Lacazette when he dropped deep. This prevented the outlet ball that had been so successful in the first half, and put the Foxes on the front foot.
Here’s an example; you can just about see Lacazette surrounded by Ndidi and Evans:
He’s in a no-win situation, and Arsenal predicatably struggled to get out for the first ~25 minutes of the half. It would have been interesting to see Arteta’s 11-man tactical adjustments.
The last 20 minutes, plus stoppage time, weren’t charted as Arsenal shifted into survival mode.
Looking Ahead — What Does it Mean for Tottenham?
Eddie Nketiah’s suspension throws a wrench into Arsenal’s plans, but Arteta does have other options should he again opt against playing Lacazette two games in a row.
The simplest solution is to play Aubameyang centrally, something he’s had success with in the past. Arteta doesn’t seem sold. “We know he can play as [the] nine but at the moment the balance of the team is a little bit better like this,” Arteta said prior to the Leicester game. “He is a team player.”
If not Aubameyang then it’s almost assuredly going to be Lacazette again. He’s missed a handful of chances of late, but is playing well otherwise so picking him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Arsenal do have a full two days more rest than their North London rivals.
Spurs are coming off a 0-0 draw away to Bournemouth on Thursday, putting out one of their worst performances of the season. They didn’t muster a single shot on goal.
On current form Arsenal should win handedly, but oddsmakers currently favor Tottenham. Mourinho does know how to kill a game.
Arteta might be tempted to switch to a back four to shore up midfield, but with the 3-4-3 rolling in recent weeks, I’d stick with it.
Prediction: Tottenham 0 – 1 Arsenal