Posted by When I was 19 or 20 I got really into basketball. The 2004 NBA looked a lot different than the 2020 NBA mainly because, like the Premier League, fouls were punished differently back then. And sometimes not at all.
The two top teams in the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers, had faced off in a hotly contested semi-final series to end 2003-04, one that the Pistons won in a bit of an upset en route to their first league championship in 15 years.
Less than a month into the following season, the two teams met again, with the upstart Pacers eager to show the NBA that the previous spring’s playoff result was a fluke. They battered the Pistons, taking a 15 point lead into the final minute of the game and serving notice to the NBA that they, not the defending champions, were the team to beat in 2004-05.
Then this happened:
The Pacers young core saw five players suspended and, after the 2004-05 season, traded away Ron Artest. After coming so close to an NBA finals appearance, they wouldn’t make the playoffs again for five seasons.
Top Five?
So what do the 2004 Indiana Pacers have to do with Manchester City’s current predicament? No one’s suggesting City are set to fall back to the middle of the pack, with out without a Champions League ban. But the stories mirror themselves in terms of self-inflicted wounds, and an unexpected boost to their rivals, among other things.
City are staring down the face of a two-year Champions League suspension, €30 million fine, and in all likelihood the end of Kevin de Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, and Pep Guardiola at the club. We can debate the validity of the rules, but as they’re written there’s little argument that City broke them. Their response so far seems to have been, “Yeah, so?“
While there’s a non-zero chance that Sheikh Mansour’s bottomless checkbook leads to a successful appeal, for now Arsenal are eight points away from a Champions League place, with a game in hand.
A win vs. Newcastle on Sunday puts the Gunners six points back.
Things get interesting when you pull up the remaining schedule. Here’s the rest-of-season strength of schedule for teams fighting for the top-five:
That’s a lot of green for Arsenal.
If they beat who they’re supposed to beat—no guarantee for a team that’s won only six of 25 Premier League games this season—the Gunners would finish on 54 points, five points out of a projected Champions League place which is mind-blowingly low.
But it’s not out of the question that they pip Leicester at home or Tottenham away, while Sheffield and/or Man United drop points. This season they’ve practically made a habit of it.
The obvious question: What evidence is there to show Arsenal, currently averaging 1.24 points per game through the first 25 games of the season, can increase that to the 2.15 ppg they’ll need to get to 59?
Mikel Arteta, for one. The new Gunners boss has breathed new life into the North London club. It’s a testament to just how far Arsenal had fallen that fan support remains high despite two wins from his first seven Premier League games.
“[His] enthusiasm is contagious for everybody,” David Luiz said in Dubai. “What Mikel is trying to build is something big and I really believe in his philosophy, I really believe we can do something big this year and in the future, so I’m really, really happy because we have our way to go.”
Mesut Ozil concurs:
The improvements have come mostly on the defensive end, where the Gunners no longer allow shots against at a similar clip to Aston Villa or Norwich. Removing the Chelsea game, played for over an hour with 10 men, Arsenal are conceding 11.3 shots per game (down from 16.8 under Emery), a rate that would be good enough for seventh if extrapolated over the entire season.
Arsenal have decreased their average xG-against under Arteta too, from 1.62 to 1.50. And while their xG-for has taken a similar 0.12 dip (from 1.37 to 1.25), that number is dragged down by two red cards and the Aubameyang suspension.
After playing 10 games in 45 days, Arsenal’s mini pre-season allowed Arteta to work towards shedding all remnants of Unai Emery. You can bet the focus in Dubai was at the offensive end.
So, can Arsenal do it? The odds certainly aren’t in their favor. But with Arteta at the helm, I wouldn’t bet against it.